Bill's Columns

With the close of Goffs’ rescheduled November Mixed Sale on December 21, the European Mixed Sale marketplace finished off the 2020 North American and European sales season. With, ultimately, 24% fewer catalogued this year (1,033 from 1,352) and 25% fewer selling (656 from 873), Goffs suffered a 33% drop in gross, from €34.4-million last year to €23-million this year, though the average dropped just 11%, from €39,464 to €35,166, while the clearance rate from the catalogue dipped just 1%, from 64.6% to 63.5%.

Overall, then, the European mixed sales were down €40-million, a 24% drop in gross, from €166.6-million in 2019, to €126.2-million this year, according to figures compiled by Brianne Stanley of The Bill Oppenheim Group, which is within the parameters we’ve seen in 2020. There were 14% fewer catalogued (4,539 to 3,916) and 11% fewer sold (2,905 to 2,576), meaning the clearance rate from the catalogues at the European mixed sales improved by nearly two percentage points, from 64.0% last year to 65.8% this year. The overall average for the 2,576 sales was off by 15%, from €57,371 in 2019 to €48,992 in 2020. Given the suspicion that a number of high-class broodmares and broodmare prospects might have been withheld from the sales, as reflected by there having been just three sales between 700,000 – 2 million guineas at Tattersalls December Mare Sale, as opposed to 13 last year, the general consensus seemed to be that the European mixed sale market held up as well as could be expected.

With the thoroughbred industry worldwide thankfully having been able to carry on mostly without the kinds of interruptions experienced in many other entertainment sectors there is a great sense of relief that 2020 auction sector losses have been limited to roughly 25%, and there is plenty of hope that 2021 will see at least a gradual return to normal life. But not immediately, and early-season 2021 sales will no doubt be affected. Keeneland January, which will run January 11-14, looks strong this year, with three dispersals. The sale grossed $42.4-million last year, $46.7-million in 2019, when Abel Tasman sold for $5-million. The North America/European mixed sale season (2020 coverings and 2020 foals) concludes with smaller European mixed sales in February.

Meanwhile, in Australasia, the 2021 yearling sale season kicks off with Australia’s highest-grossing yearling sale, Magic Millions, which runs from January 12-18 on Queensland’s Gold Coast. This sale, which grossed A$181-million in 2019 and A$189-million in 2020, has 1,286 yearlings catalogued, up 11% from last year. But there are many restrictions still in place which could impact the sale, though not as much as New Zealand’s Karaka sale the end of January, which, at this point at least, Australian agents and trainers will not be allowed to attend, which could seriously impact their takings. For the next two months at least, the expectation is more that the 20% downward trend will continue, rather than the change of calendar translating to immediate relief from the effects of the pandemic. One positive indicator, maybe more for the second half of the year than the first half, is there does seem to be pent-up demand for quality bloodstock (as well as much else in the world’s economies), given that the Dow-Jones is at this writing above 30,000.

The Goffs sale did not have too much impact on the averages or rankings for the top European sires. Dubawi led the weanling averages, with three sold at Newmarket for an average of $752,625. Frankel had four foals average €420,000 at Goffs, which solidified his hold on second place among European sires by 2020 weanling average, as he’s now had 11 sell for an average of $426,314. Irish sires Lope De Vega (8/$285,927), Sea The Stars (14/$211,235), and No Nay Never (4/$196,224) come next, followed by Camelot, who had six sell at Goffs, which saw his average rise from €122k to €162,222. Coolmore’s 2018 G1 English 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior, by Deep Impact out of Maybe, was the leading first-season sire, with 15 weanlings averaging $115,079. England’s Tweenhills Stud stood the next two in line, the ill-fated Roaring Lion (8/avg $84,476) and reverse-shuttler Zoustar (18/$71,850), who has 5-year-olds racing in Australia but had his first Northern Hemisphere foals in 2020.

The sale of Palace Pier’s dam, Beach Frolic, for 2.2-million guineas at Tattersalls in foal to Blue Point sealed his position as leading European covering sire of in-foal mares, six mares in foal to him averaging $684,385. Five other sires averaged over $400,000 for in-foal mares, which of course are more a gauge of the class of mares the sire covered than yearling and foal averages, which are based more on the sire’s popularity. These five were: Juddmonte’s top-flight duo of Kingman (5/avg $457,053) and Frankel (2/$434,034); Lope De Vega (4/$428,759); No Nay Never (9/$420,266); and Siyouni (7/$419,088). It’s also worth bearing in mind that seven North American sires go into 2021 with in-foal mare averages of $400,000+, of which five (Quality Road, Into Mischief, Justify, Medaglia D’Oro, and Curlin) have in-foal mare averages over $700,000.

A total of 21 European sires end 2020 with in-foal mare averages of $100,000+, of which six are sires which covered their first crop in 2020. Besides Blue Point (6/$684,385), who stands at Darley’s Dalham Hall Stud in Newmarket, the other five are Irish stallions Soldier’s Call (2/$216,950) from Ballyhane, Coolmore sires Ten Sovereigns (11/$169,354), Magna Grecia (6/$128,501), and Calyx (10/$111,248), and Germany’s Gestut Auenquelle’s Best Solution (2/$103,031).

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim