Bill's Columns

Hopefully the results of the first six days of Kentucky’s November sales (Fasig-Tipton Nov. 8 plus Keeneland Books 1-3, through November 13) prefigure a recovery in the world at large, because, very strikingly, gross revenues totalled $208,938,000, down just 10% from comparable 2019 revenues of $230,874,200; and the combined average of $185,888 was down just 1% from last year’s corresponding $187,855 average. With a 30% jump in the number catalogued, Fasig’s revenues were actually up $12-million (+18%), while Keeneland’s Books 1-3 revenues, with 7% fewer catalogued than last year, were down $34-million (-27%). But when we look at the first six days of selling in 2020 compared to the first six days in 2019, the thoroughbred market does seem to have improved, especially in the last two months.

Combining the first six days over four books from two sales companies, a total of 2,089 horses were catalogued this year, a 3% drop from 2,160 last year. There were 1,124 listed as sold, down 9% from 1,229, which was just a 3% drop in the clearance rates from the catalogues, from 56.9% in 2019 to 53.8% this year. The combined gross was down $22-million, and the average was essentially even.

However, when we separate out the weanlings sold over the first six days the results are not so encouraging. Of the 2,089 catalogued, 943 (45%) were weanlings, while of the 1,124 sales, just 441 (39%) were weanlings. The clearance rate from the catalogue for weanlings this year has been 46.7%, a drop of 6.7% from 53.4% sold (511/957) in the corresponding 2019 sessions. There was a 24% drop in the weanling gross, from $58,743,700 to $44,703,500 this year, and a 12% drop in the weanling average, from $114,958 to $101,368.

By contrast, in the six sessions this year there were 1,146 non-weanlings catalogued, presumably, at this stage of the sale, all fillies and mares. A total of 683 sold (59.6% of those catalogued). This was remarkably similar to last year, when 718 non-weanlings sold, which was 59.7% of the 1,203 catalogued. There were 5% fewer fillies and mares catalogued, 5% fewer sold, and interestingly, they produced only 5% less revenue ($164,234,500 this year, $172,130,500 in 2019). The average for fillies and mares was $240,460 this year, $239,736 last year – a difference of three-tenths of 1%. Evidently medium-term broodmare investors are considerably more optimistic than short-term weanling buyers.

The first mares in foal to Ashford Stud’s undefeated 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify averaged $796,419, so it’s no surprise that he continues to operate at the top of the market. Though he only had eight sell from 25 originally catalogued (15 went through the rings), they averaged $381,250 to top all sires of weanlings over the six days of selling. War Front (avg $325,000) and Tapit (avg $295,000) had just two sell each, but four other sires also averaged over $200,000: Into Mischief (9/avg $281,667), now firmly established as a top commercial sire to go with his other laurels; Lane’s End’s City of Light’s first foals really impressed the judges, with 11 averaging $229,273; previous Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (12/$205,833); and Champion-Sire-in-waiting Uncle Mo (11/$205,545).

Among the 28 sires to average over $100,000 for their weanlings in the first six days, 11 are representatives of the last four crops of sires. Among sires with their first foals, besides Justify ($381,250) and City of Light ($229,273), Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Good Magic (10/$104,000) and Spendthrift’s Bolt d’Oro (19/$100,474) both edged into six-figure average territory, just ahead of Ashford’s Mendelssohn (19/$95,737). Among sires with their first yearlings in 2020, Claiborne’s Mastery (8/$152,125) edged out Three Chimneys’ Gun Runner (6/$150,833) and Juddmonte’s deceased Arrogate (7/$131,429), with Ashford’s Practical Joke (13/$94,679) also close up. Darley’s leading freshman sire, Nyquist, led his sire group with 10 weanlings averaging $161,000, while #2 freshman sire, Taylor Made’s Not This Time, was also second by weanling average as five averaged $110,000. Among sires with their first 3-year-olds, American Pharoah ($205,833) and WinStar’s Constitution (6/$114,167, from a $15,000 fee in 2019) understandably led the way.

Five sires had a mare in foal or averaged over $700,000, led by Quality Road (4/avg $871,250), Into Mischief (13/$831,154), and Justify (10/$791,500). Medaglia d’Oro had one mare sell in foal for $750,000, and Curlin had nine average $748,333. War Front had four mares in foal average $525,000, while Uncle Mo had 19 in-foal mares average $512,632.

Of the 30 sires which had a mare in foal or averaged over $100,000, three covered their first mares this year: Claiborne’s Catholic Boy (16/avg $168,875) edged out Spendthrift’s Omaha Beach (15/$165,800) for top billing, and Lane’s End’s Catalina Cruiser (6/$104,167) also made the six-figure club, with WinStar’s Audible (8/$97,125) knocking on the door. Besides Justify ($791,500), three other sires with their first foals averaged over $100,000 from their second crop of mares covered: Airdrie’s Collected (4/$228,750); City of Light (20/$222,500); and Bolt d’Oro (5/$105,800). Arrogate (12/$205,417) led Gun Runner (7/$148,429) among F2019 sires who covered their third book of mares, while Nyquist (17/$237,471) topped F2018 sires, with their first 2-year-olds, and American Pharoah (9/$351,667) and Constitution (19/$302,895) naturally led the way among F2017 sires with their first 3-year-olds.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim