Bill's Columns

Comparing auction sales results from this year to previous years does not really describe a decline in the auction marketplace which can be ascribed to factors internal to the thoroughbred industry, but rather, as everyone can plainly see, the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic which has affected the entire world. Figures compiled by Brianne Stanley of The Bill Oppenheim Group show that 1,224 two-year-olds (47.8% of 2,559 originally catalogued) have been sold at North American auctions so far this year, for a gross of $110,176,000, an average of $90,013. Compared to last year (which include Fasig-Tipton’s Gulfstream and Santa Anita sales), the number catalogued is down 7% (from 2,754), the number sold is down 15% (from 1,439), the gross is down $70-million (39%) from $180,160,000, and the average is down 28%, from $125,198.

Especially since 2-year-old consignors will have sold a lot of horses privately, the $70-million decline will not be a true reflection of ‘the market’, as we have come to understand it. In fact, there is broad agreement that, given the understandable restrictions of movement and trade, it is pretty remarkable that as much as $110-million in North American 2-year-old auction business has taken place. There is some chance that by the time we get to September the yearling sales may offer more of a year-to-year comparison, but that we’ll just have to wait and see.

A total of 203 sires have accounted for the 1,224 auction sales, of which 23 have averaged (or had one sell for) $150,000+. Of those, seven (including four of the top five on average) have had four or fewer sell, including Europeans No Nay Never (2/avg $390,000), Frankel (1/$320,000); and Lope De Vega (1/$200,000); American sires with four or fewer sold and a $150,000+ average include Medaglia D’Oro (3/$366,667), War Front (1/$335,000), Curlin (3/$248,333), and Lemon Drop Kid (4/$153,750). Of course, there may also have been private sales well above these levels.

It’s hard to believe that in 2017, just four covering seasons ago, Lane’s End’s Quality Road was still standing for as little as $35,000, yet such was the case; only in 2018 did his fee double, to $70,000. So those breeders smart enough to breed to him in 2017 would have been pretty unlucky not to make money, as he leads all sires with five or more 2-year-olds sold, with an average of $337,429. Uncle Mo (5/$314,600) is the only other sire with 5+ sold to have averaged over $300,000, though another seven sires have averaged over $200,000, including: Empire Maker (10/$253,700); American Pharoah (11/$237,909); Flatter (7/$232,857); Candy Ride (11/$230,909); Bernardini (6/$215,750); Distorted Humor (7/$213,571); and Into Mischief (18/$207,333).

Among first-crop sires, wunderkind Not This Time has had 29 sell, for an average of $193,690 to lead all ‘freshman’ sires; that’s 66% of his 44 originally catalogued, compared to 48% for all sires. Runhappy (10/$153,100) is second among freshman sires on average, with another four first-crop sires averaging over $100,000 with 5+ sold: Upstart (18/$130,556 – over 13x his stud fee); Frosted (25/$122,560); Air Force Blue (16/$106,844); and Speightster (31/$105,871 – over 10x his initial fee). Among second-crop sires, with their first 3-year-olds racing in this crazy year, six have six-figure averages: besides American Pharoah, three Lane’s End sires – Tonalist (5/$172,000), Liam’s Map (a half-brother to Not This Time, interestingly, 19/$138,737), and Honor Code (5/$134,000) rank two-three-four by 2-year-old sale average. Top second-crop sire Constitution has had 24 two-year-olds average $132,417 (2017 stud fee $25,000), and Daredevil, sire of top 3-year-old filly Swiss Skydiver before his ultimately untimely sale to Turkey (after covering 21 mares in 2019, it must be pointed out), has had five 2-year-olds average $103,700.

There have also been four 2-year-old sales in Europe thus far (more coming on both sides of the Pond), which were combined into two venues: Tattersalls’ Craven Sale and Tattersalls Ireland’s Ascot sale in Newmarket; and Goffs UK and France’s Arqana two-year-old sales in Doncaster. With just 15 more catalogued in the four sales this year (580) than last year (565), there were 102 fewer sold, 273 selling for a total of £20,244,494 this year, versus 375 which sold for £30,261,500 in the corresponding sales last year. Clearly a lot of those catalogued were sold privately, as the percentage sold from the catalogues dropped from 66% to 47%. So 27% fewer horses sold, for 33% less money, though the average drop was just 8%, from £80,697 in 2019 to £74,156 this year. Sire averages for European 2-year-old sales will be included in our next report, later this month, after the remaining OBS Summer, Tattersalls Guineas, and Tattersalls Ireland’s Goresbridge sales later this month.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim