Bill's Columns

After a seriously truncated first five months of the year, the North American second-crop sire list (first foals 2017, first 3-year-olds 2020) is even less clear than the second-crop sire list usually is after Memorial Day weekend. Most years the list will be dominated by sires with a Classic or Classic prep winner in their first crop of 3-year-olds, but with the recognized Classics all pushed back we’re looking now at results which in most years would resemble more the middle to end of April, so one thing we should expect is for there to be considerably more fluctuation in these lists in the next three months than usual.

There is a suspicion this might be quite a good group of sires; at the moment there are two clear leaders by cumulative progeny earnings as well as in several key black-type categories. When we ran these figures on May 28, Coolmore’s 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah($3.93-million) had a lead of a little under $50,000 over WinStar’s Constitution ($3.88-million). Since then Constitution’s Laura’s Light scored her second G3 win in the May 30 Honeymoon S. at Santa Anita, while American Pharoah struck back on May 31 as Ocean Atlantique became his sire’s 7th BTW in the Prix Suresnes (L) at Deauville. They are probably now just about dead even by progeny earnings at just under $4-million each. They are also the top two by: number of Black-Type Winners (‘Pharoah’ now 7, Constitution 5), number of Black-Type Horses (Pharoah 17, Constitution 12), number of Graded SW (all 5 of Constitution’s BTW are GSW, Pharoah has 3), and number of Graded SH (Pharoah 10, Constitution 9). American Pharoah is the crop leader by number of runners so far (100), Constitution the leader by number of winners (42). Both look poised for further improvement in the coming months: Constitution has some good dirt 3-year-olds, headed by G1 Florida Derby winner Tiz The Law, while American Pharoah is likely to have more grass representatives, in Europe as well as North America, who are just now be getting started for the season. Of his 38 winners so far, 21 (55%) are winners on turf.

A total of 20 North American second-crop sires now have progeny earnings over $1-million, plus we have to throw in Mr. Speaker, who was at $996k when we ran these numbers. The 19 with earnings from (almost) $1m - <$3.8m can be divided into two groups: eight more sires with at least one GSW, and 11 sires which don’t yet have a GSW, but several of which are displaying definite promise.

Ranked #3 and #4 by cumulative progeny earnings are two sires with two G1 or G2 winners each: Three Chimneys’ Palace Malice, Curlin’s first top son to have runners, ranks #3, including G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor and Mr. Monomoy, a half-brother to Monomoy Girl who won a division of the G2 Risen Star this year; while #4 is Liam’s Map, who had the unusual distinction of having had two G1 2-year-old winners in his first crop, Hopeful winner Basin (most recently second to Charlatan in a division of the G1 Arkansas Derby) and Frizette winner Wicked Whisper.

The next four slots by cumulative progeny earnings are occupied by sires who are producing plenty of good winners and black-type horses without yet being credited with a GSW. This was a big sire crop for Tapit, and besides Constitution, this sire group also includes Darby Dan’s Tapiture, just behind Constitution with 41 winners, including three BTW and eight Black-Type Horses; and Lane’s End’s #9-ranked Tonalist, sire of G2 winner Tonalist’s Shape, one of the top 3-year-old fillies of this crop. Tapiture doesn’t have a GSW yet, but 41 winners and eight BTH reads pretty well.

Just behind Tapiture, at #6 on the progeny earnings table, is Ashford’s Competitive Edge, sire of four BTW and seven BTH, followed at #7 by Florida’s top second-crop sire, Journeyman Stud’s Khozan, a Distorted Humor half-brother to the top filly Royal Delta; he has nine Black-Type Horses so far, of which two are BTW. At #8 is Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Bayern, who has 35 winners and five BTH though no BTW yet. Tonalist ranks #9, and five other sires with GSW are among the second ten: #12 Summer Front, a grass horse by War Front who has G2 Fountain of Youth winner Ete Indien on the dirt this year and G3 winner Fighting Seabee last term; #13 Honor Code, whose G3 Withers S winner Max Player is pointing for the Belmont S but also has G2 San Felipe S second Honor A.P. due to re-engage Authentic in the G1 Santa Anita Derby June 6; #14 Daredevil, exported to Turkey after covering just 21 mares in 2019, since which time he’s had G2W Swiss Skydiver and G3W Shedaresthedevil scoring in good two-turn 3-year-old fillies’ contests; #17 Karakontie, sire of G3W Kenzai Warrior, pointing for the G1 English 2000 Guineas, and Sole Volante, winner of the G3 Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay and reportedly pointing to the G1 Belmont S; and #19 Commissioner, sire of the Florida G3 winner Island Commish.

Seven other sires with near or at $1m-plus in cumulative progeny earnings are racking up points without yet registering a GSW. WinStar’s Carpe Diem ranks #10 but looks like he’s knocking on the door; he’s one of a rash of sons of Giant’s Causeway appearing at the moment, along with WinStar’s Fed Biz (first 4-year-olds) and 2020 freshman sires Not This Time, off to such a fast start, and Brody’s Cause. Wicked Strong (6 BTH), Fast Anna (3 BTW), Race Day (4 BTW), Palace, Mr. Speaker, and Florida’s The Big Beast are all right at or over $1-million in cumulative progeny earnings. We should also mention two sires in Maryland who have made good starts as that state’s storied breeding history tries to revive: Northview Stallion Station’s #22 Golden Lad, a son of Medaglia D’Oro who has four BTH so far; and Anchor & Hope Farm’s #24 Bourbon Courage, by Lion Heart, who has five.

Second-crop sires are nearly always in flux at this time of the year, and this year only more so. But the next month will tell us a lot, in North America of course, but also in Europe, where their second-crop sires are going to be among those competing in a rash of Classics plus Royal Ascot, in the next 30 days. We’ll report back.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim