Bill's Columns

It’s taken three-time Leading Sire Tapit a good while to establish himself as a sire of sires, but it’s all happening now, with four sons among the top 16 North American second-crop sires by cumulative earnings; two of them, WinStar’s Constitution and Lane’s End’s Tonalist, actually rank one-two by 2020 progeny earnings, according to Blood-Horse statistics through racing of March 7. Darby Dan’s Tapiture and Spendthrift’s Race Day also figure among the top 16 by cumulative progeny earnings.

Constitution, who ranks second to Ashford’s 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah by cumulative progeny earnings, is one of four second-crop North American sires to have two or more Graded SW plus at least one Grade 1 horse. American Pharoah has six BTW to date to Constitution’s five, but all five by Constitution are Graded SW, whereas ‘Pharoah’ has three. He leads Constitution, 15 to 12, by number of Black-Type Horses, and they are tied by number of Graded Stakes Horses, with nine each; no other member of this sire class has more than three as yet. Constitution is one of three second-crop sires with at least one Grade I winner, his being 2019 G1 Champagne S. winner Tiz The Law, winner this year of the G3 Holy Bull, heading for the G1 Florida Derby, and current co-favorite for the Kentucky Derby. The other second crop sires with Grade 1 winners are: Three Chimneys’ Palace Malice, who ranks #3 in the sire crop by cumulative progeny earnings and is sire of 2019 G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor, as well as 2020 G2 winner Mr. Monomoy; and Lane’s End’s Liam’s Map, currently #5 by cumulative progeny earnings, and one of a rare group of sires to have two Grade 1 winners (G1 Hopeful winner Basin and G1 Frizette winner Wicked Whisper) in their first crop of 2-year-olds. Group leader American Pharoah does not yet have a G1 winner, but he does have three horses who are G1-placed.

Five other second-crop sires have sired Graded SW, two of them (Lane’s End’s Honor Code and WinStar’s Commissioner) sons of A.P. Indy, plus the aforementioned Tonalist, by A.P. Indy’s grandson Tapit; he is the sire of Tonalist’s Shape, unbeaten in five career starts, including the G3 Forward Gal and G2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream this winter and one of the favorites for the G1 Kentucky Oaks. Honor Code is the sire of 2020 G3 Withers winner Max Player, as well as Honor A.P., on March 7 a good second to the other current Derby co-favorite, Authentic, in the G2 San Felipe S. Commissioner is the sire of Gulfstream’s G3 Kitten’s Joy winner Island Commish.

Trainer Patrick Biancone has had a big hand in the progress of both Airdrie’s Summer Front and Gainesway’s Karakontie, training one each of the two GSW for each – ironically, both 100% grass horses who now have dirt runners on the Derby trail. In fact the whole turf-dirt distinction is being blurred: American Pharoah himself very definitely gets turf and dirt, and Palace Malice, another dirt horse, had G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor. Ete Indien, trained by Biancone and by Summer Front, won the G2 Fountain of Youth on Feb. 29, and Sole Volante, by Karakontie, won the G3 Sam F. Davis and just ran second, on March 7, in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Each sire also had a G3 winner on the turf at two, Fighting Seabee (G3 With Anticipation) for Summer Front and Kenzai Warrior (G3 Horris Hill, in England).

At least seven other sires with progeny earnings over $1-million (just under in one case) who don’t yet have a GSW are showing considerable promise considering their stud fees range from $6,000-$15,000. The leader of this group is Darby Dan’s Tapiture, by Tapit, who ranks #4, with $1.96-million in cumulative progeny earnings at this writing, including 3 BTW/8 BTH. Ashford’s Competitive Edge ranks #6, with 4 BTW/6 BTH, and others who merit a mention are Florida’s Journeyman Stud’s #7 Khozan (2 BTW/9 BTH, third in that category behind only American Pharoah and Constitution); Hill ‘n’ Dale’s #8 Bayern (0 BTW/5 BTH); WinStar’s #10 Carpe Diem (2/5); Spendthrift’s #11 Wicked Strong (1/6) and #16 Race Day (4/5); and Three Chimneys’ #14 Fast Anna (3/4).

INTERIM REPORT: AUSTRALASIAN 2020 YEARLING SALES

The 2020 Australasian yearling sales season was about 70% complete at the close of business at Inglis’ Melbourne Yearling Sale March 3. At that point, using figures supplied to my team by Australia’s Bluebloods magazine, the 2020 Australasian yearling sales had grossed AUS$387-million, compared to $373-million in 2019 and $391-million in 2018. So the market is essentially holding steady following big gains made between 2017 and 2018. Magic Millions stages sales in Adelaide March 10-11 and on the Gold Coast March 16-17, and the major yearling sales season wraps up with Inglis’ Sydney Easter Sale April 7-8, though there are a sprinkling of sales after that. The two Magic Millions sales should each gross +/- $10-million; Sydney Easter, which has the highest average of any yearling sale in Australasia ($353,511 last year), has grossed $123-million each of the last two years. So we can expect Australasian yearling sales to have grossed in the neighbourhood of AUS $525-million by the end of Sydney Easter. The size of that marketplace speaks for itself.

According to figures compiled by the Blood-Horse, there have been 22 stallions which have had 5+ yearlings sold for an average of AUS$150,000+ thus far, of which 14 of the top 15 on average are proven sires, with first foals at least 4-year-olds in the current season. The exception is none other than American Pharoah, who ranks #6 by average, with 36 yearlings from his first Australian crop having averaged $277,729 so far.

Arrowfield Farm’s venerable Redoute’s Choice, who died in 2019, leads the list by sire average, with seven sold for an average of $451,429, and has another ten catalogued for Easter. His stature as a sire of sires is illustrated by two of his sons at Arrowfield, three-time champion sire Snitzel, who ranks fourth by average (51 sold/average $311,836, another 67 catalogued for Easter), and the recently-retired Not A Single Doubt ranks fifth (42/$307,583, 25 at Easter). Redoute’s Choice’s six fillies catalogued for Easter will be much sought-after, too: he was Leading Broodmare Sire in Australia for the first time last season, and is in a big tussle with the previous occupant, Encosta De Lago, for supremacy this season.

Number two on average at the sales so far is Yarraman Park’s I Am Invincible (54, $434,704, 48 at Easter), who broke the record for individual SW in a season in Australia in 2018-19 and is himself engaged in a mighty tussle with Snitzel for the 2019-20 sire championship. Darley’s Exceed And Excel (34/$355,142; 18), who is having a stellar season with his 12th crop of 3-year-olds, ranks third by average. Coolmore’s Fastnet Rock (32/$276,066; 24) and five-time champion New Zealand sire Savabeel (63/ $239,073; 8) rank seventh and eighth. The top ten by average is rounded out by two Darley shuttlers for whom these are the final Australian crops, Medaglia D’Oro (12,/$223,623; 13) and Teofilo (12,/$213,221; 5). Top young sires Pierro (49/$200,712; 16) and Zoustar (56/$192,125; 18) come next; these are their fifth and fourth crops of yearlings respectively, and both will have commanded much better mares in their succeeding crops than they did in this one. Sebring (63/$189,370; 24), Written Tycoon ((53/$188,486; 15), and Hinchinbrook (49, $177,486; 9) round out the top 15.

Second and third to American Pharoah among first-crop sires were Arrowfield’s shuttler Shalaa (54/$174,870; 13) and Newgate’s homegrown son of Written Tycoon, Capitalist (75, $163,840; 26). The top sire on average with first 3-year-olds so far is another Newgate stallion, Deep Field (49/$171,346; 2). Other young sires who have averaged over $150,000 so far include F2015 Dundeel (34/$166,797; 15) and F2013 So You Think (36/$159,526; 12), while the veteran brigade is represented by More Than Ready (23/$161,196; 9) and Lonhro (21/$151,012; 9).

My consulting team recently ran APEX ratings for Australasian sires which have their first 3-year-olds+ this season. We publish here two ‘Top 30’ tables for Australasian sires with 200+ year-starters 2013/14-2019/20 (a horse is counted as one year-starter each season it starts); not surprisingly there is a high correlation between the sires with the best APEX ratings and yearling averages. Redoute’s Choice (3.64), the number one sire by yearling average (5+ sold), is the number one sire by APEX A Runner Index. Snitzel (3.28), Savabeel (3.14), F2015 Zoustar (3.12), and Fastnet Rock (3.11) complete the top five by A Runner Index, ahead of F2015 Epaulette (3.04, $77,402 yearling average), F2015 Dundeel (2.87), I Am Invincible (2.85), Not A Single Doubt (2.63), and Exceed And Excel (2.55). Snitzel (2.31) captures the top spot by ABC Runner Index, ahead of his sire, Redoute’s Choice (2.26), I Am Invincible (2.19), Fastnet Rock (2.01), Savabeel (1.98), Zoustar (1.91), Medaglia D’Oro (1.90), and Pierro (1.89).

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim