Bill's Columns

Following the trend at most of the major yearling sales this year, England’s Tattersalls sales company’s flagship October Book 1 yearling sale, held in Newmarket October 8-10, experienced slight declines from 2018. With 552 yearlings catalogued over the three days, 397 yearlings sold (71.9% of those catalogued; American sales are lucky to see 60% sold from catalogued) for a total of 102,279,000 guineas, and an average of 258,008 gns. The gross declined by 4% from 2018, when 392 yearlings (75.5% of the 519 catalogued) sold for 106,503,000 gns, while the average was down 5% from last year’s Book 1 average of 271,691 gns. And while leading buyers Godolphin and Shadwell accounted for nearly a quarter of the gross between them, sales company officials were reportedly heard to be rehearsing a rendition of “America The Beautiful” after American interests, headed by Mike Ryan and Chad Brown, bought an estimated 58 yearlings – nearly 15% of the yearlings sold.

Through the end of October Book 1 on October 10, Brianne Stanley of The Bill Oppenheim Group reports that 2,516 yearlings have been sold at European yearling sales since July 1. This is 74.5% of the 3,375 catalogued, and they have produced gross revenues of €254,092,378, for an average of €100,991. These figures are nearly dead level with 2018, when at the corresponding sales 2,485 yearlings (74.7% of 3,328 catalogued) grossed €253,288,336, and averaged €101,927. Thus far in 2019 there have been 1.4% more yearlings catalogued, 1.2% more yearlings sold, for a gross increase of three-tenths of one percent, and a decline in average of 1%. It’s not like somebody plans these things: this is just the market, it just came out this way.

At the end of Keeneland’s September sale, 3,378 yearlings had been sold at the principal US yearling sales, for a total of $450,372,700 - leaving out Fasig’s Mid-Atlantic earlier this month, and the OBS yearling sale last week. Converting the European sales figures to US$, we calculate the European sales so far have grossed $279,501,615. That makes a total of $729,874,315 in sales between the two sectors, an average of $123,833 for 5,894 yearlings sold. Besides the early October sales mentioned above, there are still two weeks of yearling sales remaining in Europe – Tattersalls October Books 2-4 running from Oct 14-19, and Arqana’s October Yearling Sale, scheduled for Oct 22-25. There are 1,874 yearlings catalogued among the remaining European yearling sales, plus 1,590 catalogued to Fasig-Tipton’s October Yearling Sale Oct 21-24, which all adds up to 3,464 yearlings catalogued in the rest of this month.

The dominance of the top echelon of super-sires isn’t anything new, but is still worthy of remark. Nine North American or European sires have averaged over $400,000 or the equivalent up ‘til now. Seven (four European, three American) of the nine were represented at European sales, so are listed in the Leaders’ table below. The American sires had only one or two yearlings in Europe each, so the four European sires on this list are: #1 Galileo (31 sold/average $857,101), 2 Dubawi (29/$730,722), 5 Frankel (34/$562,148), and 7 Kingman (52/$410,735). The Americans which had yearlings sell in Europe were: #3 War Front (16/$607,507), 5 Medaglia D’Oro (32/$582,836), and 6 American Pharoah (63/$436,434). Not represented in Europe, but still with $400,000+ yearling averages through the end of Keeneland September, were Curlin (41/$551,390) and Tapit (24/$530,208).

Of the $729.8-million in yearling sales revenue so far this year, the nine sires above have had 322 yearlings (5.5% of the 5,894 total) sell, for a total of $179,414,691, which is 24% of the total; so 5.5% of the yearlings generated 24% of the revenue. The other 5,572 yearlings sold have generated $550.4-million, and averaged $98,790. So, up until now anyway, you either had a yearling by one of the elite super-sires, or you had a $100,000 yearling.

Among sires with their first crops of yearlings, three American sires not represented in the European sales topped the table: Nyquist (36/$275,722), Runhappy (50/$240,060), and Frosted (59/$238,898). The top European first-crop yearling sire to date by average is France’s Shalaa (43, $143,666), followed by Awtaad (34/$99,523) and The Gurkha (28/$87,478). America’s Outwork ($109,988 through the September sale) and Air Force Blue also cracked the 6-figure average table as 39 yearlings by him averaged $105,862.