Bill's Columns

You know about the “smell test” – something either rings true, or it doesn’t, in other words it corresponds to our perceptions of reality. In the world of thoroughbred breeding sire analysis, this is the problem with the average-earnings index: even though the definition and structure of it are mathematically correct, the results don’t really ring true. I guess not too many people notice it, because the average-earnings index isn’t used very much these days except in ads, but, in my small world, it was never really very useful, because I would see sires with a 1.40 average-earnings index, but I knew they were only really average sires. So, for me, the average-earnings index, theoretically pure as it might be, never really passed the smell test.

In working on developing the APEX method of rating sires (denoting Annual Progeny Earnings indeX) at Racing Update in the 1990’s, we made an interesting discovery: by knocking out sires which didn’t average at least 10 foals per crop (that was roughly 20% of the foal crop at that time) we ended up with averages which, when we looked at them, we said yes, 1.00 = average. As things evolved, the standard became sires were included only if they had 10+ 3-year-olds of the last year covered. You can argue that it’s less theoretically pure, but whether or not that’s the case, the results, to me, pass the smell test, because they correspond with what I perceive reality to be.

In my last column (July 15,2019) I mentioned there are actually 17 different APEX ratings, and we concentrated there on the 44 North American and European sires with 200+ year-starters since 2013 and A Runner Indexes of 2.00+, as well as the 43 sires with 40 or more A Runners during that time period; remember, a single horse is counted as one year-starter each year it starts, up to seven. We calculate three classes of runners (A,B,C) in each jurisdiction in each year, then add each region (NA, EU, JPN) together for the seven years and figure it from there.

As mentioned previously, A Runners are the top 2% of runners in a year in each jurisdiction; B Runners the next 2%, C Runners the next 4%, so ABC Runners are the top 8% combined. We sometimes refer to them as “break-even-or-better” runners, on the grounds that if they are at worst C Runners they should at least have paid their way, at least the cost of having them in training, even if it didn’t put a dent in their purchase price. The scale for the A Runner Index will naturally be higher than for the ABC Index, as for A Runners we divide by 2.00%, whereas for ABC Runners we divide by 8.00%. So Galileo, for example, has a 2.75 ABC Index, whereby if we multiply by eight it tells us that exactly 22.00% of Galileo’s runners 2013-2019 were at least C Runners; we also know that over half of those were A Runners, as his 5.80 index multiplies by two so we know 11.60% of that 22.00% were actually A Runners. Please refer to the accompanying table to see the ABC Runner thresholds for each jurisdiction going back to 2013.

On the one hand it’s small consolation to know you might have paid $300,000 for a stud fee, or any amount for a yearling, to find that a top 8% runner in North America in 2018 could make as little as $67,474; on the other hand, it’s also heartening to discover that the top five sires by A Runner Index are also the top five by ABC Runner Index – meaning, if you don’t get a star, you at least have a chance of getting a horse which will pay its own way. The accompanying table lists 46 North American and European sires with APEX ABC Indexes of 1.60+ (times eight equals 12.80%+ of runners). Notably, the top five sires are: 1 Frankel 2.95 (23.60% of runners), 2 Galileo 2.75 (22.00%), 3 Dubawi 2.69 (21.52%), 4 War Front 2.61 (20.88%), 5 Tapit 2.25 (18.00%). They are the same top five sires by A Runner Index.

Four of the 17 APEX indexes refer to a sire’s frequency of getting ABC Runners at four ages: two, three, four, and five plus. This is often very revealing. If you look at the four age indexes for say the top 15 sires among the 46 with 1.60+ ABC indexes, note the contrast between #3 Dubawi (2.69 overall ABC Index) and #4 War Front (2.61). Dubawi is above average for 2-year-olds with a 1.44 index, but then 2.08 – 2.94 – 4.22; better older. War Front in fact has the highest 2-year-old index of all (3.98), then well over 2.00 at all ages; a top-class sire at all ages, but just about the world number one for 2-year-old ABC Runners. That's obviously one of the factors which makes Galileo (2.75) such a super-sire – his 2-year-old rating (3.71) is second only to War Front’s. Number 6-ranked Medaglia D’Oro (1.34 – 2.22 – 1.95 – 2.53) and particularly #13 Sea The Stars (0.73 – 1.92 – 2.09 – 2.80) are examples of sires whose stock typically improve with age: #10 Into Mischief (2.68 – 2.03 – 1.81 – 1.34) and especially the California sire, #11 Square Eddie (3.06 – 2.17 – 1.75 – 1.11) are the reverse – better younger. So far #1 ranked Frankel looks relatively even across all ages, which is not an unusual profile either.

The fact that so many top-class proven sires dominate these lists illustrates how difficult it can be for relatively younger sires to penetrate their ranks – Frankel excepted. So a couple of other lists also accompany this article, including a list of 20 sires with first foals 2012-2016 which have ABC Indexes of 1.50+. The top four on this list all stand for six-figure stud fees: Frankel (2.95); Uncle Mo (2.09); Quality Road (1.96); and No Nay Never (1.94). The fifth-ranked horse on this list is Adios Charlie (1.90), a son of Indian Charlie who stands at Ocala Stud in Florida, and stood this year for $3,000! That’s a bargain. Two other sires on this list stand for four-figure fees: McMahon of Saratoga’s Central Banker (1.70), a son of Speightstown who has his first 3-year-olds in the New York program; and, in Kentucky, Spendthrift’s Dominus (1.56), a son of Smart Strike who won G2 races at 8 1/2f. on dirt and grass both.

There are plenty of other sires on this list standing for 25,000 or under, including Twirling Candy (1.89), Kantharos (1.81), Jimmy Creed (1.79), the French sire Pedro the Great (1.72), Munnings (1.62), and a new entry, Animal Kingdom (1.54), whose first crop, like Jimmy Creed and Pedro the Great, are just 4-year-olds this year, so positive moves forward are not uncommon. Respectable ABC indexes mean they are siring a reasonable number of good-class horses.

Also included: a list of 204 sires with first foals 2012-2016 with significant numbers of year-starters. Complete data on 714 sires who stand or stood in North America, Europe, and Japan, as well as my articles, current and archived, and Brianne Stanley’s Weekly Sales Ticker, are available at www.billoppenheim.com.