Bill's Columns

In the ten years since the World Financial Crash of 2007-09, the Australasian racing and breeding industry has crossed the line from being ‘just’ the top of the Southern Hemisphere to becoming a fourth regional world power, along with Northern Hemisphere regions North America, Europe, and Japan. Instead of having to buy the moderate half-sister to the good horse, or the half-brother to the good sire, they’re now players to buy the good filly or mare themselves, while shuttling, especially courtesy of Coolmore and Darley, continues to provide Australasian breeders with access to top sire prospects and good sires. Besides an enticing domestic purse structure, a very robust secondary market in Asian racing districts like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Macau, and Asian investment in Australia and New Zealand have also fuelled the Australasian market. In 2018 the Australasian yearling sale market grossed over A$540-million.

Wm Inglis and Son, now based in the Sydney suburbs, and Queensland-based Magic Millions between them run all the major Australian yearling sales, and New Zealand Bloodstock, based in Karaka, just outside Auckland, run the sales in that country. There have now been six major 2019 yearling sales held in Australasia, following the March 3-6 Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale: Magic Millions in January (Australasia’s top-grossing yearling sale); Karaka in New Zealand, starting the end of January; Inglis’s Classic sale in February; and smaller Magic Millions-run sales in Perth (Western Australia) and Tasmania, before Melbourne. Still to come are Magic Millions sales in Adelaide (South Australia) and back on the Gold Coast (March 18-19) before Inglis wraps up the major yearling sales series with the high-dollar Sydney Easter Sale (averaged A$346,728 last year) April 9-10 – there will still be a second sale in Melbourne and a sale in Scone, home of many of the major stud farms in the Hunter Valley, later on.

At the six completed yearling sales this year, we calculate 4,035 yearlings had been catalogued, of which 2,937 (72.8%) were sold. This is a very good percentage by international standards, but it’s nearly a 5% drop from the clearance rate from the catalogues for the corresponding sales last year, when 3,045 yearlings were sold (77.6%) from 3,925 catalogued. The number catalogued was up by 110 (+3%) but the number sold was down by 108 (-4%). Last year there were 880 yearlings catalogued but not sold at the six sales; this year the number was 1,098, an increase of 218 yearlings, so there was very nearly a 25% increase in the number of yearlings catalogued but not sold. As we saw even in the Sydney Easter Sale last April, the demand for yearlings is not unlimited.

In 2015 the six yearling sales grossed A$237-million and averaged A$88,154. Three years later the gross reached A$376-million – a jump of 58% - and the average had risen 40%, to A$123,565. This year the combined gross is off by 5% from last year’s record, to A$356-million, while the average has declined just 2%, to A$121,479. But these totals rather mask the fact that the first sale, Magic Millions’ massive Gold Coast Sale in January, was actually up by 8% in gross, from A$168-million to almost A$181-million, while the average gained 7%, from A$188,449 to A$201,060. That sale has accounted for over half the total receipts at the six sales so far, and it was up 8% in gross and 7% in average. Since then the other five sales have grossed A$175-million and averaged around A$86,000. But last year the corresponding five sales grossed A$208-million and averaged around A$96,000 – so the sales since Magic Millions are down 16% in gross, and 12% in average, from the record highs of 2018. Is this simply a correction after a record run of increases, or the beginning of a downward trend? Sydney Easter April 9-10 will tell us: last year 337 yearlings, 74.9% of the 450 catalogued, grossed A$116.8-million and averaged A$346,728. Last year they had a little add-on Book 2, but this year it is just a two-day sale, with the exact same number of 450 catalogued (corresponding to Book 1 last year), so comparisons should be reasonably straightforward.

A total of 17 stallions have had ten or more yearlings sell thus far this sales season and averaged A$150,000+, plus another seven stallions, five of which stand in the Northern Hemisphere, have achieved that average with one to three yearlings sold. This group includes Golden Horn, Frankel, and Siyouni from Europe, Tapit from the US, and Lord Kanaloa from Japan.

The proven sires dominate the sales landscape in Australasia; the top six sales sires have generated nearly A$80-million in revenue - over A$30-million of it from 80 yearlings sold by Yarraman Park Stud’s I Am Invincible, for the second-highest average (A$383,125) among sires with 10+ sold. The highest average (A$541,038), for 17 sold, goes to Arrowfield’s legendary three-time Champion Sire, Redoute’s Choice, and his best son, two-time Champion Sire Snitzel, ranks third on average (A$330,082), with 43 yearlings sold so far. Coolmore’s Fastnet Rock, himself a two-time Champion Sire and still going strong, ranks fourth by average (24 sold/A$328,359), with Darley’s Medaglia D’Oro, who of course no longer shuttles but did have the 90-1 G1 New Zealand Derby winner March 2, fifth by average (10/A$302,526), and four-time New Zealand Champion Sire Savabeel number six, with 52 yearlings averaging A$285,056.

Widden Stud’s top second-crop sire Zoustar, now standing his first Northern Hemisphere season at part-owner Qatar Racing’s stallion headquarters in England, Tweenhills Stud, is the top younger sire by yearling average to this point, ranking #7 on average, with 67 yearlings sold, for an average of A$263,475. Darley’s Brazen Beau, the top Freshman Sire, and who stands in Victoria, had an A$800,000 colt to top the Melbourne sale, and ranks ninth (40/A$234,038) overall. Top third-crop sire Pierro (39/A$167,622) and top first-crop sire Vancouver (57/A$155,444), both Coolmore sires, headed their respective sire crops and ranked #14 and #15, respectively, among the 17 sires.

Seven other proven sires have yearling averages over A$150,000 so far: Arrowfield’s Not A Single Doubt (41/A$235,958), another son of Redoute’s Choice; Widden Stud’s recently-deceased Sebring (51/A$228,892), a really successful son of More Than Ready; Victoria’s Woodside Park’s Written Tycoon (90/A$211,462), the top Victoria-based sire; Yarraman Park’s Hinchinbrook (44/A$196,878), a ¾-brother to Snitzel by Fastnet Rock who unfortunately died, aged just 11, last year; Darley’s veteran Exceed And Excel (26/A$195,000), still a respected force both at the sales and on the racetrack; Vinery’s venerable More Than Ready (45/A$152,931); and Darley’s Teofilo (12/A$152,695), who has turned out to do really well in Australasia, for instance Happy Clapper, five times second to Winx in G1 or G2 races and a three-time G1 winner when he doesn’t have to run against Winx. He’s been 22 times first or second in 39 career starts and earned A$6.5-million.