Bill's Columns

When I wrote in my column on July 31 that it looked like Fasig-Tipton had a shot to break $100-million for their three summer sales, I thought they would probably have to include their July Horses of Racing Age sale to crack that barrier … but no: after The Saratoga Sale was up by $9.8-million and the New York-bred sale saw a $2.2-million increase in gross, their three yearling sales broke through the $100-million barrier, with a combined three-sale gross of $101,048,500. This was an 18% increase in the $85,311,000 the three sales grossed last year. When we add in their July HORA sale, the total Fasig-Tipton three-sale summer gross was $110,366,500, also an 18% increase from the combined 2017 gross of $93,399,000. The three-sale yearling average, for 538 yearlings sold, was $187,822, a 12% gain from the corresponding 2017 average of $167,286.

It wasn’t totally sunshine and roses, though, to which Fasig-Tipton president Boyd Browning, Jr. alluded in his post-sale remarks. Yes, you get paid, and paid very well, if your yearling ‘clears the bar’, but if not, there’s nobody there and, as Browning said, the ‘cut line’ is edging ever higher. This was reflected in the three-sale yearling clearance rate of 57.8%, a 4.6% decline from last year’s 62.4% clearance rate for the three yearling sales. Fasig-Tipton catalogued 931 yearlings in the three sales, an increase of 114 (14%) from last year, yet sold just 28 more yearlings (+5%) than last year, which is why the increase in gross is greater than the increase in average. Whether these double-digit increases will be replicated at Keeneland September, with nearly five times the number of yearlings catalogued than in the three Fasig-Tipton yearling sales combined, remains problematical. But that in no way detracts from the Fasig-Tipton team’s accomplishments: a $17-million increase in gross over their four summer sales is a huge win.

In 2017 five sires stamped themselves as the commercial ‘elite of the elite’ by all recording yearling averages over $650,000: Dubawi, Galileo, and Frankel in Europe, and War Front and Tapit in North America. Darley’s flagship American sire, Medaglia D’Oro, ranked sixth, but far behind the top five, with an average just under $400,000. Enough of that, the market decided: Medaglia D’Oro was the leading North American sire by average at this year’s 2-Year-Old sales, nine selling for an average of $526,624, including three seven-figure 2-year-olds (ahead of Tapit, 4 sold, average $496,250, and Scat Daddy, 27 sold, average $481,852). At the three Fasig-Tipton yearling sales, War Front qualifies, narrowly, as the leading sire by average, with two selling for an average of $787,500, but Medaglia D’Oro is a very close second, with seven averaging $785,000, including three seven-figure yearlings, and a median of $635,000. Looks like that top five is about to become a top six.

Make that seven. Dubawi (2) and Frankel (3) are about to get underway at Arqana’s Deauville August sale staring August 18; Galileo has already had three yearlings average $311,298 at the Tattersalls July Mixed Sale (dissolving partnerships), and has six catalogued at Deauville. So those three, along with War Front, Tapit, and Medaglia D’Oro are the established sires, and number seven is of course 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who’s had 12 yearlings sell so far, for an average of $516,250. He does have just the 81 catalogued for Keeneland September, though, so whether he can really sustain an average in the neighbourhood of $500,000 with that many catalogued remains to be seen. If not, that many numbers could just mean buyers have a chance to find something affordable by one of the most exciting sire prospects in years.

Besides the four sires which have averaged over $500,000 so far (War Front, Tapit, Medaglia D’Oro, and American Pharoah), three other sires averaged over $400,000 at the three Fasig-Titpon sales, and another eight have averaged over $300,000. In the 400’s were: Curlin (7/$474,286); Pioneerof The Nile (6/$451,667); and Hard Spun (3/$441,667). In the 300’s were: Into Mischief (a remarkable 20 sold/22 catalogued, avg $364,250); Empire Maker (4/$361,250); Quality Road (4/$352,500); Violence (4/$333,750); Blame (3/$323,333); Uncle Mo (13/$323,000); Candy Ride (6/$317,500); and More Than Ready (6/$308,333). Of course all of these will have a lot more in September.

It’s a hot group of first-year sires of yearlings, too, headed of course by American Pharoah. But eight other first-crop yearling sires have averaged over $100,000, with two or more sold, at the three Fasig sales. Lane’s End stands three of the eight: number two-ranked (by 2018 yearling average from July on) Honor Code (12/$283,333); fifth-ranked Liam’s Map (12/$175,000); and sixth-ranked Tonalist (5/$153,000). WinStar stands two: third-ranked Carpe Diem (10/$212,000) and Constitution, ranking ninth with 10 yearlings averaging $110,000 so far. Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Bayern ranks fourth with nine selling from nine offered and ten catalogued, for an average of $188,333; Claiborne’s Lea ranks seventh among the first-crop yearling sires, with four averaging $142,500; and Three Chimneys’ Palace Malice ranks eighth, with 12 averaging $129,167. Though averages inevitably will fall due to the massive numbers, the fact is this is a very promising group of young sires, in numbers as well as in quality. Fasig-Tipton’s summer results give an uptick to breeders who can at least go into the September market with excitement as well as anxious anticipation. Prices are strong if the horse can clear the bar.

The European yearling sales season kicks off August 18 at another spa, Deauville, home of the Arqana August Yearling Sale. This is a four-day sale with a total of 485 yearlings catalogued, and breaks down into three separate sections, in two books. Book 1 is the first three days, two evening sessions on August 18 and 19 which are the Select sessions, with 85 a night and 170 total. There is then an all-day Open session August 20, with 175 catalogued (171-345), followed by a separate book for what is called the ‘V.2’ sale on August 21. This is billed as something like the Fasig-Tipton July yearling sale, emphasizing yearlings which are more precocious. There are 140 yearlings catalogued for this session (346-485).

For the last four years the Select sessions have grossed between €29-€31 million, and averaged between €214k-€247k. There were 174 catalogued in the Select session last year, 170 this time. One feature of this sale is a sparkling clearance rate from the catalogue – this is not just of those through the ring, this is of the total number catalogued. European sales traditionally run at about a 10% higher clearance rate than North American sales: in 2016, Deauville’s two select sessions registered a 73.5% clearance rate from the catalogue; it dropped a bit last year, to 70.1%, but compared to American sales, with clearance rates from the catalogues in the 50’s – well, there’s no comparison. Last year’s select session averaged €240,008. Over the entire four-day sale last year, 337 yearlings (70.5% of the 478 catalogued) grossed €43,097,000, and averaged €127,884.

Europe’s top three sires are all represented at Deauville: Galileo has six yearlings catalogued, Dubawi two, and Frankel three – all in the select sessions. Haras de Bonneval’s Siyouni, who tops the 2018 French Sire General Sire List, has the highest representation throughout the four days, with 30 catalogued, of which 15 are in the select session, 10 in the Open session, and five in the V.2 sale. He stood for €75,000 this year, though was €30,000 in 2016, when these yearlings were sired. Other top French sires Kendargent (first foals 2009, nine catalogued), Le Havre (F2011, 20 catalogued), and Wootton Bassett (F2013, 27 catalogued) are well represented, as well as Dabarsim (F2015, 27 catalogued), who started in Germany but has now moved to France’s Haras de Grandcamp. Siyouni has the most catalogued in the select sessions, followed by Ireland’s Yeomanstown Stud’s Dark Angel, with 12 yearlings in the select sessions. There is also representation from Europe’s three most exciting first-crop yearling sires: England’s Dalham Hall Stud’s Golden Horn and Ireland’s Coolmore’s Gleneagles have eight yearlings each, while England’s Nunnery Stud’s (Shadwell) top sprinter Muhaarar has seven; 20 of those 23 are in the select sessions, the remaining three in the August 20 Open session.

Finally, snapshots of Top 10 North American and European sires with 200+ year-starters in three categories of 2018 Midyear APEX ratings: the top 10 sires by number of A Runners and ABC Runners, and by ABC Runner Index 2012-2018. APEX ratings are a variation of the average-earnings index but calculate the frequency with which stallions sire runners which achieve certain earnings thresholds in each year (Northern Hemisphere) or season (Southern Hemisphere) for the last seven years. A Runners are the top 2% of earners/runners, ABC Runners the top 8%. For a complete explanation of APEX ratings, and to see Midyear APEX ratings on 753 qualifying sires (first foals 2015 and earlier) in North America, Europe, and Japan, please visit www.billoppenheim.com/APEX. The top 50 NA-EU sires by APEX A Runner Index, and earnings thresholds for APEX runners, may be found in my article in the July 17 Blood-Horse Daily.