Bill's Columns

The addition of a Horses of Racing Age day on the front of Fasig-Tipton’s Kentucky July Yearling Sale in 2013 resulted this year in Fasig July’s two days grossing over $29-million ($29,080,500 to be precise) earlier this month, with the key July Yearling Sale gross nudging $20-million and the average edging into six figures at $100,829. Last year at Saratoga 156 yearlings grossed almost $53-million (really almost: $52,995,000) and a sale for which the over-and-under has been a $300,000 average surged to an average of $339,712. With their New York-bred sale grossing over $16.2-million, Fasig’s combined gross for July’s two days and Saratoga’s two sales was $93,399,000 in 2017 – call it almost $93.4-million. With July’s two days this year being up almost $4.9-million it wouldn’t take much of an increase at Saratoga’s two sales for Fasig-Tipton’s summer sale gross to break the $100-million barrier.

On the one hand, a $100-million target could well be within reach; there are 14% more yearlings catalogued to the two-day main sale (255 vs 224 last year), and 10% more catalogued to the NY-bred sale (327 vs 296). However, more catalogued doesn’t always translate into more sold: in 2016 there were 252 yearlings catalogued to the main sale, yet the same number (156) were sold in 2017, with 11% fewer catalogued, than in 2016. Moreover, there were big jumps for both sales in 2017 – the gross for the two sales was up nearly $10-million, from $59.2-million in 2016 to $69.2-million last year. More often than not the market has trouble advancing the following year after such big gains. So a $100-million gross for Fasig-Tipton by the end of the NY-bred sale is by no means a certainty, but is certainly reachable – much like Fasig’s July yearling sale aspiring to gross $20-million; the final tally was $19,762,500.

The 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah had 13 weanlings/short yearlings average $467,308 in late 2017 and early 2018, so it should help Fasig Saratoga’s ‘handle’ that 15 yearlings from his first crop are catalogued for the main sale. Superstars don’t come along every day – Frankel was the last one, and his first yearlings averaged over US$700,000 in 2015 – so when they do we can expect their presence to contribute to the event that is the Saratoga yearling sale.

In fact no fewer than 25 different sires have yearlings from their first crops (so I designate them as first foals 2017, or F2017, sires) catalogued in one of the two sales; 12 have yearlings catalogued in both sales, 13 just in the NY-bred sale. This total doesn’t include Gainesway’s Empire Maker, who has five yearlings catalogued to Saratoga from his first crop back There were four first-crop sires whose first weanlings/short yearlings averaged over $100,000 in 2017-18, and these four have the most catalogued at the main sale. Lane’s End’s Honor Code, who was number two to American Pharoah with a $198,500 weanling/short yearling average, has nine catalogued (plus five NY-breds); and the same firm’s Liam’s Map, who was third by average (13/$131,281), has 11 catalogued, plus also five NY-breds. Fourth by average was WinStar’s Carpe Diem (20/$110,475), who also has nine catalogued in the main sale, plus four NY-breds.

Three other sires who debuted at $20,000+ stud fees are also well represented: Lane’s End’s Tonalist has five in the main sale, plus four NY-breds; WinStar’s Constitution has four, plus eight NY-breds; and Three Chimneys’ Palace Malice, who led all first-year sires with three or more sold at Fasig July (four sold, for an average of $187,500), has six in the main sale, plus four NY-breds. Five other first-year sires have one or two in the main sale and between four and six in the NY-bred sale, and three sires, including New York first-year sires Normandy Invasion (Keane Stud, 7) and Micromanage (Rockridge, 6) have six or more first-crop yearlings in the NY-bred sale.

Other crops of younger sires are of course not so well represented. Airdrie’s Cairo Prince has the highest representation among F2016 sires with their first 2-year-olds, with six in the Saratoga sale and another six in the NY-bred sale, while New York stallion Central Banker (McMahon) has 12 in the NY-bred sale. Among F2015 sires with their first 3-year-olds, Hill ‘d’ Dale’s Violence has four catalogued (plus two), and Ashford’s Shanghai Bobby has one in the main sale plus 10 NY-breds; while among F2014 sires with their first 4-year-olds, Lane’s End’s Union Rags has four plus one catalogued, and New York sire Mission Impazible (Sequel) has seven in the NY-bred sale.

In the big Monday-Tuesday sale, the leading sire by yearlings catalogued is Ashford’s Uncle Mo, who has 16 catalogued from his fifth crop of yearlings, when he started at $75,000 and kept going up as the results came in for his first 3-year-olds. Spendthrift’s Into Mischief, who has graduated into being a highly sought-after commodity by the commercial market and owner-breeders alike, and whose five yearlings at Fasig July averaged $222,000, has 13 catalogued. Darley’s Medaglia D’Oro has 12 in the book, and Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Curlin has 11. Spendthrift’s Malibu Moon has nine catalogued, while Gainesway’s three-time Champion sire Tapit and WinStar’s Tiznow have eight each. Three more WinStar sires – Pioneerof The Nile, Speightstown, and More Than Ready – have seven, seven, and six catalogued, respectively. In the NY-bred sale, Sequel’s veteran Freud has 12 catalogued, while Lane’s End’s Kentucky sire Mineshaft has eight.

Last year the two Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sales, as noted, grossed $69.2-million. After Fasig July’s two days totalled $29.2-million, Fasig-Tipton could exit Saratoga with $100-million in receipts for the first time ever if the two sales gross $71-million, or a $2-million (3%) increase from last year. With a 12% increase between the two sales in the number catalogued that $100-million target seems attainable, though by no means assured.

The APEX ratings, you’ll recall, measure the frequency with which stallions sire runners which score in the top 2% - 8% of runners by annual or seasonal earnings. In order to be assigned APEX ratings, sires must have 10 or more named 3-year-olds of the last year covered (10+ 3-year-olds of 2018, for these Midyear 2018 ratings), so eliminating Freshman sires as well as those ‘below the line’ in terms of having any possible commercial impact. The ratings are compiled on a rolling seven-year basis (so in 2018, the year 2011 is dropped off and the year 2018 added), and ratings are assigned by class, age, and region. The most notable, and important, rating, is a sire’s A Runner Index, for which 1.00 = average.

In our most recent Midyear 2018 run, with data provided as usual by TJCIS (The Jockey Club Information Systems), we find there are 178 North American and European sires with first foals 2012-2015 (first 6yo’s – 3yo’s of 2018) and a minimum number of year-starters per sire crop, of which 22, or 12.4%, have A Runner Indexes of 1.95+. These 22 cover four crops of sires: 37 F2012 sires with first foals 2012 and 200+ year-starters 2014-2018; 46 F2013 NA/EU sires with first foals 2013 and 115+ year-starters 2015-2018; 44 F2014 sires with first foals 2014 and 95+ year-starters 2016-2018; and, in their first appearances on these tables, 51 F2015 sires with their first foals 2015 – first 3-year-olds 2018 – and 40+ year-starters 2017-2018. Given such a low number of minimum year-starters it stands to reason the ratings for the F2015 sires will be considerably more volatile than for those with older first foals.

The two standout sires among the 22 are Juddmonte Farm’s Frankel (5.93), actually the #1 ranking sire by A Runner Index among North American and European sires; and Coolmore Ashford’s Uncle Mo (3.83), who ranks #5. Frankel is an F2014 European sire whose oldest foals are 4-year-olds this year; Uncle Mo is an F2013 Kentucky sire whose oldest foals are five. So when somebody says to you,” who is the best young sire around?” the answer is “where?”

Of the four sire crops reviewed here, the F2012 sires, who have their first 6-year-olds racing this year, and their fifth crops of 2-year-olds, include eight sires which have A Runner indexes over 1.95. Five stand in Kentucky, three in Europe. The top three have very similar A Runner indexes: tied at the top are Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm’s Kantharos (2.80), who made his name in Florida standing for $5,000 and has just completed his second season in Kentucky; and France’s Haras de Bonneval’s Siyouni (2.80), a son of Pivotal bred and raced by the Aga Khan who started out at €7,000 and now stands for €75,000. Right on their tails is Lane’s End’s Quality Road (2.76), who is this sire crop’s leader with 19 GSW and is by far the crop leader with eight Grade I/Group 1 winners. Ireland’s Ballylinch Stud’s Lope De Vega (2.06) is the crop leader with 34 Black-Type Winners (BTW) and an amazing 63 Black-Type Horses (BTH) – exactly 20% of his 316 runners. Also over 1.95 among F2012 sires are Ashford’s Lookin At Lucky (2.40) and Munnings (2.23); Claiborne’s resurgent Blame (2.12) in Kentucky, and England’s Whitsbury Manor’s Showcasing (1.96).

The F2013 sire crop includes only Uncle Mo and his perennial runner-up, Lane’s End’s Twirling Candy (2.02) with A Runner indexes over 1.95. Only three European F2013 sires, in fact, have A Runner indexes over 1.00: Dream Ahead (1.84), originally at Ireland’s Ballylinch Stud but now at France’s Haras de Grandcamp; Coolmore’s Zoffany (1.59); and France’s Haras d’Etreham’s Wootton Bassett (1.17), who had Europe’s top 3-year-old of 2016, Almanzor, in his first crop of just 18 foals. These horses now have their fourth crops of 2-year-olds running, so figure to be at a low ebb, although Zoffany already has nine 2-year-old winners from that crop, including the Royal Ascot G3 Albany S. winner, Main Edition.

Five F2014 NA/EU sires with their first 4-year-olds top the 1.95 A Runner Index threshold, though Frankel is of course out on his own. From small crops, Spendthrift’s versatile and very good-looking dual G2 winner by Smart Strike, Dominus (3.10) is doing very well, while the North American leader with 200+ year-starters is Airdrie’s Creative Cause (2.09), who is very much coming into his own in 2018. In Europe both also with smaller number of runners, Darley’s Rio de la Plata (2.54), who stands at the Haras du Logis in France, and Campanologist (1.98), a son of Kingmambo who stood at Gestut Fahrhof in Germany, are holding their own, though Campanologist unfortunately died at the end of 2015 after returning from shuttle duty in Argentina.

Among F2015 sires with their first 3-year-olds, we have to say it’s an ever-developing story, though Darley’s Farhh (3.49), a son of Pivotal who had good form behind Frankel on the racecourse, has consistently looked good from small numbers. Intello (3.00), a son of Galileo who has alternated between England’s Cheveley Park and France’s Haras du Quesnay, has really emerged as a good young sire this year; Coolmore’s Camelot (2.27), who had two G1 winners in a week with winners of the G1 Irish Derby and G1 Belmont Oaks, has emerged as the top European F2015 sire by progeny earnings by a wide margin; and the unconsidered Cityscape (2.00), a Juddmonte castoff at England’s Overbury Stud, has been a real, pleasant surprise package. The top North American F2015 sire by APEX A Runner Index is Spendthrift’s Jimmy Creed (2.50 – do not underestimate); also over 2.00, primarily but not exclusively due to recent impressive G3 Dwyer winner Firenze Fire, is Florida’s Pleasant Acres’ Farm’s Poseidon’s Warrior (2.42); and leading 2018 second-crop sire Take Charge Indy (2.11), who should be on his way back from South Korea any minute now. But this sire crop is very much a work in progress, and honourable mentions must also go to France’s Haras de la Haie Neuve’s Pedro The Great (1.89); Ashford’s Declaration of War (1.88); and England’s Tweenhills Stud’s Havana Gold (1.85). One or two good horses and any of these sires can break out quickly; their second crops of 2-year-olds, after all, are just getting going.