Bill's Columns

In the July 3 Blood-Horse Daily I wrote: “one good thing about projections is they give us a standard against which to measure the actual results, so the real question will be how close or far the July [Yearling] sale is from a $20 million gross and $100,000 average. Before the fact, those look like optimistic targets”. Considering the gross was $19,762,500 and the average was $100,829 we can definitely say the Fasig July yearling sale finished up right at the top end of our pre-sale projections. There were 50 more (+17%) yearlings catalogued than last year, of which 11% more sold, so the clearance rate from the catalogue dropped 3%, from 58% to 55%. The gross was up by 22% ($3.6-million); and the average was up by 7%. When we add in the figures from the July 9 Horses of Racing Age sale, Fasig Kentucky’s two days in July grossed $29,080,500, almost a $5-million increase (+20%) from corresponding 2017 figures. They must be pretty satisfied with those numbers.

Sire averages are more or less irrelevant at a Horses of Racing Age sale, but of course they are vital at the yearling sales, especially for younger sires. Claiborne’s Flatter had the Fasig sale-topper at $520,000 and another colt sell for $190,000 so does have the highest average with two sold averaging $355,000. Darley’s Street Sense similarly had a $350,000 colt bought by Godolphin and another $100,000 colt for a $225,000 average for two. Bur probably of more significance are sires, particularly younger sires, which had three or more sell. Three Chimneys’ two sires with 2-year-olds occupied two of the top three spots on that list, as Will Take Charge had four sell for an average of $232,500, and Strong Mandate had three average $220,667. Splitting them was Spendthrift’s Into Mischief, with five averaging $222,000. He has proven to be truly a superior sire. Because his first four crops totaled only 140 foals, approximately the same number as are in his fifth (now 4-year-olds) and sixth (now 3-year-olds) crops he is at a significant statistical disadvantage against other sires whose sixth crops are 3-year-olds but have a more even distribution of foals per crop. There is some evidence which suggests if Into Mischief had the same sort of crop distribution as his contemporaries, he would be rated a top-four U.S. sire, alongside Tapit. War Front, and, yes, the late lamented Scat Daddy. His final crop are now 2-year-olds, though. Into Mischief, who currently sits #4 on the North American General Sire List, incidentally has 13 catalogued at Saratoga.

Eleven sires in all had three or more sell and averaged $100,000 or more at Fasig-Tipton. Three Chimneys had a massive sale, because besides Will Take Charge and Strong Mandate, their Palace Malice was the top first-year sire, with four selling for an average of $187,500. He was a seriously good horse from Curlin’s first crop who win the G1 Belmont S. and G1 Met Mile. Second among first-year sires with three or more sold was Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Bayern (three, averaged $115,000), third was WinStar’s Constitution, winner of the 2014 G1 Florida Derby and 2015 G1 Donn H. (defeating Lea). Five yearlings by Constitution averaged right at $100,000.

Two sires with their first 3-year-olds (F2015) joined the two with first 2-year-olds and three with first yearlings in averaging $100,000+ with three or more sold, meaning seven of the eleven sires with six-figure averages were from the three youngest crops of sires with runners. The F2015 sires were Take Charge Indy, who had three average $123,333; and Ashford’s Shanghai Bobby, who had six yearlings sell for an average of $118,333. Two sires with first foals 2012 (F2012) were among the 11. Ashford’s Munnings, who now has his second three-figure crop since having three straight crops under 60, had five yearlings average $144,000, and is one to keep an eye on in September: this group of yearlings are out of the best-bred mares he’d ever covered, and his 2018 crop are out of even better mares. Darley’s Midshipman, also with first foals 2012 and a good sire at a four-figure fee, had three average $111,667 at Fasig. The only sire who had his first foals before 2010 who averaged over $100,000 with three or more selling at Fasig was Spendthrift’s Malibu Moon, who had four average $147,250.

A total of 13 F2017 sires with their first yearlings 2018 had three or more sell at Fasig. Besides the three mentioned above (Palace Malice, Bayern, Constitution) who averaged $100,000+, these included three from Spendthrift, two more from WinStar, and two from Darby Dan. Spendthrift’s three were: Palace (as distinct from Palace Malice; 5 sold, impressive $86,100 average); Race Day (4 sold, average $63,750); and Wicked Strong (3 sold, averaged $57,667). Besides Constitution, WinStar also debuted Daredevil (3 sold, averaged $63,000) and Commissioner (7 sold, averaged $60,714). Darby Dan had the buzz horse Tapiture (6, averaged $55,833) and Sky Kingdom, who had three Fasig yearlings average $53,333. Only three other farms were represented by F2017 (first-crop yearling) sires with three or more sold: Ashford’s Competitive Edge (8, averaged $68,750); Airdrie’s Summer Front (5, averaged $57,400); and Buck Pond’s Conveyance (4, averaged $45,000).

We’ll be seeing a lot more by all these first-crop sires in the next couple of months. In particular, Ashford’s American Pharoah (1 sold at Fasig, $200,000), who has 15 at Saratoga; Lane’s End’s Honor Code (1 sold, $100,000; 9 at Saratoga) and Tonalist (none at Fasig, 5 at Saratoga); and WinStar’s Carpe Diem (2, averaged $100,000; 9 at Saraoga).

APEX (Annual Progeny Earnings indeX) sire ratings calculate the frequency with which sires’ progeny achieve certain earnings and class levels. They were developed nearly 30 years ago by our team at Racing Update in reaction to what was then big purse inflation (at the time, $2-million; now, $10-million) which distorted the average-earnings index. There are actually 17 different APEX ratings, which sounds complicated, but really it’s not as complicated as it sounds: sires are rated at three different class levels, at four different ages (2yo, 3yo, 4yo, 5yo+) and in three different regions (North America, Europe, and Japan). The class levels are earnings-based: the top 2% earners from runners in a given jurisdiction in a given year are designated ‘A Runners’; the next 2% ‘B Runners’; the next 4% ‘C Runners’; so ABC Runners combined comprise the top 8%. A table of earnings thresholds may be found with this column; note that APEX ratings are restricted to a seven-year band (so once-great sires don’t look better than they now are). They are calculated on an annual (or, in this case, semi-annual) basis, so one horse is counted as one runner each year it runs, and as an A, B, or C Runner each year it qualifies. The calculations are then indexed: for the A Runner Index, 2.00%=1.00, so if a sire has 10% A Runners, his A Runner Index will be 5.00.

Coolmore’s Galileo, indisputably the top sire of our time, doesn’t always have the highest A Runner Index, simply because he has so many runners, which we call ‘year-starters’ as one runner can count more than once. Since the beginning of 2012 Galileo has had 2,004 year-starters, an average of 286 starters a season and the most of the 437 sires which qualified for Midyear 2018 APEX ratings, which stand or stood in North America or Europe, and which had 200+ year-starters (an additional qualification for being assigned APEX ratings is sires have to have had 10 or more 3-year-olds of the last year covered [in this case, foals of 2015, 3-year-olds of 2018] – so no freshman sires, and no sires with really small crops). Galileo has a massive 5.66 A Runner Index (meaning 11.32% of his runners [227] have earned that much), but even that was not enough for him to retain his ranking as the #1 APEX sire by A Runner Index, because his son Frankel, the top-rated racehorse of all time, has 32 A Runners from 270 year-starters to date, which translates to an A Runner Index of 5.93 (11.86% of year-starters). Of course Frankel has the statistical advantage of having had only 13% the number of runners Galileo has had but even so it’s pretty hard not to speculate that Frankel is the new Galileo.

Veteran readers may notice these highest APEX ratings seem higher than usual, even for these superstars, and that does seem to be the case. We made a technical adjustment with TJCIS (The Jockey Club Information Systems), which provides all the calculations and data to my team’s specifications. One anomaly in using earnings-based statistics is that sometimes Group winners, especially European Group winners, can win a Group race but still not qualify as an A Runner based on earnings. As we are sure that Group winners in the seven countries covered (USA, Canada, UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Japan) are at least as good as A Runners, we went back and caught up historically to make sure all Group winners in these countries are in fact counted as A Runners. I think that account for what may seem like inflation in the indexes but really isn’t.

After Galileo & Son (or should we start saying Frankel & Dad?), Darley’s Dubawi (4.68) and Claiborne’s War Front (4.63) rank third and fourth by 2018 Midyear APEX A Runner Index, both also with relatively stratospheric ratings. Claiborne’s Ashford satellite’s Uncle Mo (3.83) is the top American-based sire whose good horses are mostly in America. Three more European sires: Ireland’s Gilltown Stud’s Sea The Stars (3.59); Juddmonte’s veteran Dansili (3.29); and Germany’s Gestiut Schlenderhan’s Adlerflug (3.17); and America’s Darley Jonabell sire Medaglia D’Oro (3.39) and Adena Springs’ Ghostzapper (3.25) round out the top ten. Spendthrift’s 11th-ranked Into Mischief (3.08) and Gainesway’s 12th-ranked Tapit (3.04) also register A Runner indexes over 3.00.

About a quarter of the top 50 sires by Midyear 2018 APEX A Runner Index are younger sires, with first foals 2012-2014. The F2012 sire crop has always looked pretty deep, and in fact has seven representatives among the top 50: Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Florida import Kantharos (2.80) and France’s Haras de Bonneval’s Siyouni (2.80), both of whom started for four-figure stud fees, actually tie for 14th ranking. Lane’s End’s Quality Road (2.76), the acknowledged crop leader in the big class categories, is not far behind. This sire crop is also represented by Ashford’s Lookin At Lucky (2.40) and Munnings (2.23); Claiborne’s resurgent Blame (2.12); and Ireland’s Ballylinch Stud’s Lope De Vega (2.06). Three sires with first foals 2013 are in the top 50, all based in America: #5 Uncle Mo (3.83), as noted; Darley’s Lonhro (2.09), who doesn’t really count as his first Australian crop was 2004 – he spent three seasons at Darley Jonabell 2012-2014; and Lane’s End’s Twirling Candy (2.02), who has been second to Uncle Mo on almost every F2013 list since the word go. Frankel is of course the top F2014 sire (first 4-year-olds 2018); the only American F2014 sire to make the top 50 is Airdrie’s emerging leading third-crop US sire, Creative Cause (2.09).

I’ll have more APEX data and comment in subsequent columns but this is hot off the presses for our first taste of Midyear APEX 2018 ratings.