Bill's Columns

In 1983, a Nijinsky half-brother to Triple Crown winner and then new hot sire Seattle Slew, who would become Seattle Dancer, set a world record for a yearling thoroughbred sold at public auction, for $13.1 million – a record that still stands.

At that time 80 per cent of the top stallions stood in North America. Three years later, in 1986, a deep recession took hold of the thoroughbred industry on both sides of the Atlantic that lasted until 1992. It took until 1995 until the green shoots of recovery took hold. That boom lasted, in the thoroughbred industry, until mid-2008 when the world economic collapse took the thoroughbred market down with it, as the accompanying tables show.

At that time 80 per cent of the top stallions stood in North America. Three years later, in 1986, a deep recession took hold of the thoroughbred industry on both sides of the Atlantic that lasted until 1992. It took until 1995 until the green shoots of recovery took hold. That boom lasted, in the thoroughbred industry, until mid-2008 when the world economic collapse took the thoroughbred market down with it, as the accompanying tables show.

The current recovery began in 2013, and prices have materially advanced at this year’s yearling sales for the first time since.

Well before the 1986-92 recession, new Arab interests including the Maktoum family and Prince Khalid Abdullah began acquiring top American stock, and during the recession Japanese interests, mainly the Yoshida family, also began acquiring top American bloodstock, including Sunday Silence. At the same time Sadler’s Wells, at Coolmore, was re-establishing the European stallion market so successfully that by the mid-2000s the balance of top stallions was back to 50-50 between Europe and North America.

Year	Kee Sold	Gross	1m+	Kee% Gross	Sold	Gross	1m+	FTK% Gross	KY Nov Sold	Gross	Average	1m+
2003	2,614	236,070,900	23	98%	59	5,160,000	0	2%	2,673	241,230,900	90,247	23
2004	2,873	279,680,200	35	93%	201	20,685,800	2	7%	3,074	300,366,000	98,783	37
2005	2,816	289,602,900	26	90%	112	32,183,000	7	10%	2,928	321,789,500	109,900	33
2006	3,147	313,843,800	27	88%	99	42,353,000	8	12%	3,246	356,196,800	109,734	35
2007	3,381	340,877,200	39	87%	107	52,036,000	12	13%	3,488	392,913,200	112,647	51
2008	3,019	185,552,300	19	73%	91	70,279,000	19	27%	3,110	255,831,300	82,260	38
2009	2,779	152,727,800	5	84%	80	28,905,000	7	16%	2,859	181,632,800	63,530	12
2010	2,929	147,392,900	8	84%	89	27,996,500	9	16%	3,018	175,389,400	58,114	17
2011	2,384	152,691,200	11	82%	79	32,745,000	13	18%	2,463	185,436,200	75,288	24
2012	2,414	143,025,600	7	70%	87	60,220,000	14	30%	2,501	203,245,600	81,265	21
2013	2,457	197,189,000	14	73%	129	73,859,000	24	27%	2,586	271,048,000	104,813	38
2014	2,512	205,899,500	18	76%	108	63,678,000	23	24%	2,620	269,577,500	102,892	41
2015	2,575	218,959,400	22	83%	92	43,666,000	14	17%	2,667	262,625,400	98,472	36
2016	2,653	215,213,000	19	80%	88	54,152,000	15	20%	2,741	269,365,000	98,272	34
2006					71	21,777,000	6		2006	Classic Star Dispersal
2011	170	55,820,000	12						2011	EP Evans Dispersal

Over the past 20 years, American pedigrees have become increasingly hard for Europeans to understand and that, coupled with the emergence of viable stallions and a thriving marketplace in Europe – exacerbated by the perception of American racing as drug-ridden – means that European buyers are not so sure any more what they are looking at in American sales catalogues.

What has become increasingly clear, though, is that even though American breeders have exported many of their formerly recognisable names, North America still continues to produce world-class horses – they just don’t have pedigrees many international buyers recognise.

Big problem, of course, but it does not alter the fact that North America and Europe are still by far the two biggest consistent sources of top-quality racehorses. It seems that no amount of export or drugs have caused America to become anything other than a true world-class producer of top thoroughbreds.

The continuing success of North American-bred horses on the racecourses of Europe, especially in light of the small numbers exported for racing there, is impressive testimony to this.

Part of the reason for this continuing success is the sheer size of the American marketplace. Even at its lowest ebb there were never fewer than 2,500 horses sold for less than $175m at the November Fasig-Tipton sales.

Normally the North American market in general is twice the size of the British, Irish and French markets combined. But the other reason has to do with that intangible but crucial variable we call ‘class’.

Since the 2013 recovery no fewer than 34 hourses have brought final bids of $1m or more at the Kentucky November sales, and that is not because people have money to throw around: it is because buyers understand that vast cauldron of American dirt racing (and now, increasingly, a welcome surge in grass racing) continues to produce world-class racehorses, broodmares and stallion prospects – even if the pedigrees are harder to understand.

Even as the horse, and all other markets, were collapsing around us there was a major revival in the American stallion ranks. The first foals by a ‘fearsome foursome’ who all rapidly shot into the top ten sires – Tapit (Gainesway), Medaglia D’Oro (Hill ‘n’ Dale, Stonewall, then Darley), Speightstown (WinStar), and Candy Ride (Hill ‘n’ Dale, then Lane’s End) – hit the racetracks in 2008. Kitten’s Joy’s (Ramsey Farm, now Hill ‘n’ Dale) first foals ran in 2009, the same year Sea The Stars rewrote the record books as a three-year-old in Europe.

The first foals by War Front (Claiborne) raced in 2010. Curlin (Lane’s End, then Hill n’ Dale) and the surprise package Into Mischief (Spendthrift) had their first foals appear in 2012, the year Frankel concluded his own record-breaking career, followed by new top sires Pioneerof The Nile (Winstar) in 2013, the year the horse market started to recover, Quality Road (Lane’s End) in 2014, the sensational Uncle Mo (Ashford) in 2015, and Union Rags (Lane’s End) in 2016. America has produced some seriously important sires in the last ten years and will continue to do so.

A couple of tips about the logistics of the Kentucky November sales. Fasig-Tipton will kick off proceedings on Monday afternoon (Sunday is a travel day when the Breeders’ Cup is in California) with a one-day sale, weanlings first, then mares and fillies that will include several multi-million dollar offerings, such as Tepin and Songbird.

Keeneland Book 1, including another superstar in Lady Eli, gets under way on the Tuesday; at Keeneland the foals and breeding stock are intermingled, rather than separated as in Europe or at Fasig-Tipton. One highlight is sure to be the first foals by American Pharoah (Ashford), in 2015 the first American Triple Crown winner in 37 years. He is represented by six weanlings at Fasig-Tipton and another 22 at Keeneland.

One other thing is an absolute certainty – as American racing and breeding have proved over and over again, even with pedigrees that are harder to understand and a foal crop 40 per cent smaller than it was ten years ago – there are going to be plenty of world-class broodmares, broodmare prospects and foals who will come out of these sales. That much, history assures us, is guaranteed.